Page 33 - Demo

%u5fc3%u7406%u5b78%u7814%u7a76%u7684%u958b%u653e%u79d1%u5b78%uff1a%u6311%u6230%u8207%u767c%u5c5533%u9810%u5148%u8a3b%u518a%u3002%u9810%u5148%u8a3b%u518a%u6307%u7684%u662f%u5728%u7814%u7a76%u958b%u59cb%u4e4b%u524d%uff0c%u5c31%u9810%u5148%u9673%u8ff0%u7814%u7a76%u5047%u8a2d%u3001%u7814%u7a76%u8a2d%u8a08%u8207%u5206%u6790%u8a08%u756b%u3002%u5f8c%u7e8c%u7814%u7a76%u8005%u4fbf%u4f9d%u5faa%u6b64%u4e00%u898f%u5283%u57f7%u884c%u7814%u7a76%u3002%u5176%u5be6%u52d9%u8003%u91cf%u53ef%u53c3%u8003Nosek %u7b49%u4eba%uff082018%uff09%u3002%u9810%u5148%u8a3b%u518a%u7684%u597d%u8655%u662f%u7531%u65bc%u7814%u7a76%u7684%u5047%u8a2d%u3001%u8a2d%u8a08%u8207%u5206%u6790%u5747%u5df2%u4e8b%u5148%u898f%u5283%u597d%uff0c%u53ef%u4ee5%u907f%u514d%u7531%u65bc%u7814%u7a76%u8005%u7684%u904e%u9ad8%u7684%u81ea%u7531%u4f5c%u70ba%u800c%u51fa%u73fe%u6709%u554f%u984c%u7684%u7814%u7a76%u884c%u70ba%uff0c%u5982%uff1ap-hacking%u3001HARKing %uff08hypothesizing after the results are known; Kerr, 1998%uff1b%u5f97%u5230%u7814%u7a76%u7d50%u679c%u4e4b%u5f8c%u624d%u63d0%u51fa%u7814%u7a76%u5047%u8a2d%uff09%u3002%u8a3b%u518a%u7814%u7a76%u3002%u8207%u9810%u5148%u8a3b%u518a%u76f8%u4f3c%uff0c%u8a3b%u518a%u7814%u7a76%u9700%u8981%u4e8b%u524d%u63d0%u4f9b%u7814%u7a76%u5047%u8a2d%u3001%u7814%u7a76%u8a2d%u8a08%u8207%u8cc7%u6599%u5206%u6790%u8a08%u756b%u3002%u6b64%u5916%uff0c%u671f%u520a%u7aef%u6703%u9810%u5148%u91dd%u5c0d%u9810%u5148%u8a3b%u518a%u7684%u7814%u7a76%u8a08%u756b%u9032%u884c%u540c%u5115%u5be9%u67e5%uff0c%u5018%u82e5%u88ab%u63a5%u53d7%uff0c%u4fbf%u6703%u662f%u539f%u5247%u6027%u63a5%u53d7%uff08in principle acceptance%uff09%u7684%u72c0%u614b%u3002%u5f8c%u7e8c%u57f7%u884c%u7814%u7a76%uff0c%u6700%u7d42%u7d50%u679c%uff08%u5982%uff1a%u662f%u5426%u9054%u5230%u7d71%u8a08%u986f%u8457%uff09%u4e0d%u6703%u5f71%u97ff%u662f%u5426%u88ab%u520a%u767b%u3002%u91dd%u5c0d%u8a3b%u518a%u7814%u7a76%uff0c%u76ee%u524d%u5df2%u7d93%u6709%u660e%u78ba%u7684%u6307%u5f15%u53ef%u4ee5%u53c3%u8003%uff08https://osf.io/pukzy%uff09%u3002%u900f%u904e%u6b64%u4e00%u8a2d%u8a08%uff0c%u53ef%u4ee5%u6e1b%u5c11%u5b78%u8853%u671f%u520a%u7684%u767c%u8868%u504f%u8aa4%uff08publication bias%uff09%u6216%u8005%u662f%u62bd%u5c5c%u554f%u984c%uff08file drawer problem%uff09%uff0c%u4e5f%u5c31%u662f%u986f%u8457%u7684%u7d50%u679c%u5bb9%u6613%u88ab%u767c%u8868%u800c%u4e0d%u986f%u8457%u7684%u7d50%u679c%u53ea%u80fd%u88ab%u64f1%u7f6e%u6536%u85cf%u7684%u60c5%u6cc1%u3002%u6b64%u5916%uff0c%u85c9%u6b64%u4e5f%u53ef%u4ee5%u907f%u514d%u5c0d%u65bc%u7d71%u8a08%u986f%u8457%u7684%u904e%u5ea6%u8ffd%u6c42%u3002%u7d71%u8a08%u65b9%u6cd5%u7684%u8003%u91cf%u3002%u91dd%u5c0d%u904e%u5f80%u7684%u904e%u65bc%u4f9d%u8cf4%u865b%u7121%u5047%u8a2d%u7684%u7d71%u8a08%u6aa2%u5b9a%u4e26%u63a1%u7528 p %u503c%u662f%u5426%u5c0f%u65bc 0.05 %u7684%u6a19%u6e96%uff0c%u5b78%u754c%u958b%u59cb%u601d%u8003%u662f%u5426%u6709%u66f4%u597d%u7684%u65b9%u6cd5%u3002%u9996%u5148%uff0c%u65b0%u7d71%u8a08%u5b78%uff08new statistics%uff09%u5f37%u8abf%u4e86%u6548%u679c%u91cf%u3001%u4fe1%u8cf4%u5340%u9593%u3001%u5f8c%u8a2d%u5206%u6790%uff08meta-analysis%uff09%u8207%u958b%u653e%u79d1%u5b78%u7684%u4f7f%u7528%u3002%u65b0%u7d71%u8a08%u5b78%u5efa%u8b70%u76f8%u8f03%u65bc%u904e%u5ea6%u4f9d%u8cf4 p %u503c%uff0c%u91dd%u5c0d%u6240%u7814%u7a76%u7684%u73fe%u8c61%u4f30%u8a08%u5176%u6548%u679c%u91cf%uff0c%u4e26%u85c9%u7531%u4fe1%u8cf4%u5340%u9593%u4f86%u5448%u73fe%u6b64%u4f30%u8a08%u7684%u7cbe%u6e96%u7a0b%u5ea6%uff0c%u6703%u662f%u66f4%u5408%u5b9c%u7684%u65b9%u5f0f%u3002%u6b64%u5916%uff0c%u91dd%u5c0d%u540c%u4e00%u500b%u7814%u7a76%u554f%u984c%uff0c%u53ef%u80fd%u6709%u591a%u500b%u5be6%u9a57%u5ba4%u3001%u591a%u500b%u7814%u7a76%u7684%u57f7%u884c%uff0c%u800c%u6709%u591a%u7d44%u7814%u7a76%u7d50%u679c%u3002%u85c9%u7531%u5f8c%u8a2d%u5206%u6790%uff0c%u53ef%u4ee5%u7d71%u6574%u591a%u7d44%u7814%u7a76%u7d50%u679c%u4ee5%u63d0%u4f9b%u66f4%u70ba%u7cbe%u6e96%u7684%u4f30%u8a08%uff0c%u4e26%u6aa2%u9a57%u53ef%u80fd%u7684%u8abf%u7bc0%u8b8a%u9805%uff08Cumming, 2014%uff09%u3002%u91dd%u5c0d%u7d71%u8a08%u6aa2%u5b9a%u7684 p %u503c%uff0c%u6709%u5b78%u8005%u4e3b%u5f35%u5c07 p %u503c%u7684%u6a19%u6e96%u7531%u539f%u5148%u7684 0.05 %u8abf%u6574%u70ba%u66f4%u56b4%u683c%u7684 0.005 %uff08Benjamin et al., 2018%uff09%u3002%u53e6%u4e00%u65b9%u9762%uff0cLakens %u7b49%u4eba%uff082018%uff09%u4e3b%u5f35%u6e05%u695a%u8aaa%u660e%u8207%u4f50%u8b49%u7814%u7a76%u8a2d%u8a08%u8207%u7d71%u8a08%u65b9%u5f0f%u7684%u8003%u91cf%u66f4%u70ba%u91cd%u8981%u3002%u6700%u5f8c%uff0c%u76f8%u8f03%u65bc%u4e0a%u8ff0%u53e4%u5178%u7d71%u8a08%uff08Frequentist%uff09%u53d6%u5411%u7684%u8003%u91cf%uff0c%u8c9d%u6c0f%u7d71%u8a08%uff08Bayesian%uff09%u53d6%u5411%u5728%u5b78%u754c%u9010%u6f38%u7372%u5f97%u91cd%u8996%u3002%u503c%u5f97%u7559%u610f%u7684%u662f%uff0c%u8c9d%u6c0f%u7d71%u8a08%u7684%u4f7f%u7528%u4ecd%u6709%u9700%u8981%u7559%u610f%u8207%u53cd%u601d%u4e4b%u8655%uff08%u5982%uff1aCumming, 2014; Simmons et al., 2011%uff09%u3002%u4e09%u3001%u958b%u653e%u8207%u53ef%u91cd%u88fd%u79d1%u5b78%u5728%u81fa%u7063%u570b%u5167%u7684%u5b78%u8853%u793e%u7fa4%u4e5f%u4e0d%u6703%u81ea%u5916%u65bc%u570b%u969b%u5b78%u8853%u793e%u7fa4%u7684%u8b8a%u5316%u3002%u4ee5%u4e0b%u5f9e%u570b%u5167%u7814%u7a76%u8005%u7684