Page 54 - Demo

52%u4eba%u6587%u8207%u793e%u6703%u79d1%u5b78%u7c21%u8a0a%u300026%u53774%u671f%uff0e114%u5e749%u6708%u51b7%u5730%u5340%u7684%u5347%u6eab%u901f%u5ea6%u76f8%u540c%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u7684%u7570%u8cea%u6027%u8ffd%u8e64%u8cc7%u6599%u5206%u6790%u4ecd%u986f%u793a%uff0c%u5bd2%u51b7%u570b%u5bb6%u96d6%u7136%u627f%u53d7%u7684%u908a%u969b%u5929%u6c23%u6548%u61c9%u8f03%u5c0f%uff0c%u4f46%u4f9d%u820a%u70ba%u8ca0%u9762%u5f71%u97ff%u3002%u65e2%u6709%u6587%u737b%u5927%u591a%u8a8d%u70ba%uff0c%u6c23%u6eab%u4e0a%u5347%u7684%u7e3d%u9ad4%u7d93%u6fdf%u5f71%u97ff%u4e26%u4e0d%u5747%u52fb%uff0c%u4e3b%u8981%u5c0d%u708e%u71b1%u6c23%u5019%u6216%u4f4e%u6240%u5f97%u570b%u5bb6%u9020%u6210%u4e0d%u5229%u5f8c%u679c%uff08Sachs and Warner, 1997; Jones and Olken, 2010; Dell et al., 2012; IMF, 2017; Mejia et al., 2018%uff09%u3002%u7136%u800c%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u7684%u4f30%u8a08%u7d50%u679c%u9032%u4e00%u6b65%u6307%u51fa%uff0c%u4f4e%u6240%u5f97%u570b%u5bb6%u53d7%u5230%u5929%u6c23%u885d%u64ca%u7684%u908a%u969b%u6548%u61c9%u66f4%u5927%uff0c%u539f%u56e0%u5728%u65bc%u5b83%u5011%u7684%u8abf%u9069%u80fd%u529b%u8207%u61c9%u5c0d%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u5f8c%u679c%u7684%u8cc7%u6e90%u6709%u9650%u3002%u4f46%u9019%u4e26%u4e0d%u4ee3%u8868%u5bcc%u88d5%u570b%u5bb6%u80fd%u5b8c%u5168%u514d%u65bc%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u7684%u5f71%u97ff%u3002%u70ba%u4e86%u6df1%u5316%u5c0d%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u653f%u7b56%u7684%u8a0e%u8ad6%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u9032%u884c%u4e86%u4e00%u7cfb%u5217%u53cd%u4e8b%u5be6%u5206%u6790%uff0c%u8a55%u4f302015%u81f32100%u5e74%u9593%u6c23%u6eab%u9010%u5e74%u4e0a%u5347%u5c0d%u5404%u570b%u7d2f%u7a4d%u6240%u5f97%u7684%u5f71%u97ff%uff0c%u4e26%u8207%u4e00%u500b%u57fa%u6e96%u60c5%u5883%u76f8%u6bd4%u8f03%uff08%u8a72%u57fa%u6e96%u5047%u8a2d%u5404%u570b%u6c23%u6eab%u50c5%u4f9d%u64da1960-2014%u5e74%u7684%u6b77%u53f2%u8da8%u52e2%u4e0a%u5347%uff09%u3002%u7814%u7a76%u7d50%u679c%u986f%u793a%uff0c%u82e5%u5168%u7403%u5e73%u5747%u6c23%u6eab%u4ee5%u6bcf%u5e740.04%u02daC%u7684%u901f%u5ea6%u4e0a%u5347%u2500%u9019%u5c0d%u61c9%u65bc%u4ee3%u8868%u6027%u6fc3%u5ea6%u8def%u5f91RCP 8.5 %uff08representative concentration pathways 8.5%uff09%u7684%u60c5%u5883%uff0c%u4ea6%u5373%u5728%u7f3a%u4e4f%u6e1b%u7de9%uff08mitigation%uff09%u653f%u7b56%u4e0b%u6eab%u5ba4%u6c23%u9ad4%u6301%u7e8c%u589e%u52a0%u2500%u52302100%u5e74%u6642%uff0c%u5168%u7403%u4eba%u5747%u5be6%u8ceaGDP%u5c07%u4e0b%u964d7.22%%u3002%u82e5%u5404%u570b%u7684%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u7570%u6027%u540c%u6642%u96a8%u6c23%u6eab%u5347%u9ad8%u800c%u64f4%u5927%uff0c%u5247%u5728RCP 8.5%u60c5%u5883%u4e0b%u7684%u7d93%u6fdf%u640d%u5931%u5e7e%u4e4e%u6703%u52a0%u500d%uff0c%u52302100%u5e74%u5168%u7403%u4eba%u5747%u5be6%u8ceaGDP%u5c07%u7e2e%u6e1b13.11%%u3002%u76f8%u6bd4%u4e4b%u4e0b%uff0c%u82e5%u80fd%u5c07%u5e74%u5747%u6c23%u6eab%u5347%u5e45%u63a7%u5236%u5728 0.01%u02daC%u2500%u4ea6%u53732015%u5e7412%u6708%u300a%u5df4%u9ece%u5354%u5b9a%u300b%u6240%u8a2d%u5b9a%u7684%u76ee%u6a19%u2500%u5168%u7403%u7684%u7522%u51fa%u640d%u5931%u5c07%u5927%u5e45%u6e1b%u8f15%uff0c%u50c5%u7d041.07%%u3002%u4e09%u3001 Kahn et al. %uff082021, Energy Economics%uff09%u7684%u5be6%u8b49%u6a21%u578b%u5728%u5be6%u8b49%u5206%u6790%u4e2d%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u4f7f%u7528%u4e86%u4ee5%u4eba%u53e3%u52a0%u6b0a%u7684%u5e74%u5ea6%u6c23%u5019%u8cc7%u6599%u4ee5%u53ca%u4eba%u5747%u5be6%u8ceaGDP%u3002%u5728%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u6578%u65b9%u9762%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u8003%u91cf%u4e86%u6c23%u6eab%uff08%u651d%u6c0f%u5ea6%uff0c%u02daC%uff09%u8207%u964d%u6c34%u91cf%uff08%u516c%u5c3a%uff09%u3002%u5177%u9ad4%u800c%u8a00%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u7d50%u5408Matsuura and Willmott %uff082015%uff09%u6240%u63d0%u4f9b%u7684%u9678%u5730%u6c23%u6eab%u8207%u964d%u6c34%u89c0%u6e2c%u6578%u64da%uff080.5%u7d93%u7def%u5ea6%u7db2%u683c%u7684%u9010%u6708%u6642%u9593%u5e8f%u5217%uff09%uff0c%u4ee5%u53caCIESIN %uff082016%uff09%u767c%u5e03%u7684%u5168%u7403%u4eba%u53e3%u7db2%u683c%u8cc7%u6599%uff08%u4ee52010%u5e74%u4eba%u53e3%u5bc6%u5ea6%u70ba%u57fa%u6e96%uff09%uff0c%u69cb%u5efa%u4e86%u6db5%u84cb1900%u81f32014%u5e74%u7684%u5404%u570b%u4eba%u53e3%u52a0%u6b0a%u6c23%u5019%u8cc7%u6599%u3002%u4eba%u5747%u5be6%u8ceaGDP%u8cc7%u6599%u5247%u53d6%u81ea%u4e16%u754c%u9280%u884c%u300a%u4e16%u754c%u767c%u5c55%u6307%u6a19%u300b%uff08World Development Indicators, WDI%uff09%u8cc7%u6599%u5eab%uff0c%u6db5%u84cb1960%u81f32014%u5e74%u7684%u89c0%u6e2c%u503c%u3002%u5c07%u4eba%u5747GDP%u8207%u6c23%u5019%u8cc7%u6599%u7d50%u5408%u5f8c%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u5f97%u5230%u4e86%u4e00%u500b%u4e0d%u5e73%u8861%u9762%u677f%u6578%u64da%u96c6%uff0c%u5176%u6642%u9593%u7dad%u5ea6%uff08T%uff09%u6700%u9577%u53ef%u905455%u5e74%uff0c%u5e73%u5747%u7d0439%u5e74%uff1b%u6a6b%u65b7%u9762%u7dad%u5ea6%uff08N%uff09%u5247%u5305%u542b174%u500b%u570b%u5bb6%u3002%u8003%u91cf%u5230%u5168%u7403%u6c23%u6eab%u5448%u73fe%u660e%u986f%u4e0a%u5347%u8da8%u52e2%uff0c%u4e26%u4f9d%u5faa%u6211%u5011%u5305%u542b%u5929%u6c23%u8207%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u6578%u7684%u7406%u8ad6%u6210%u9577%u6a21%u578b%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u7684%u5be6%u8b49%u5206%u6790%u4ee5%u4ee5%u4e0b%u7684%u8ffd%u7e31ARDL%u6a21%u578b%u70ba%u57fa%u790e%uff1a