Page 52 - Demo

50%u4eba%u6587%u8207%u793e%u6703%u79d1%u5b78%u7c21%u8a0a%u300026%u53774%u671f%uff0e114%u5e749%u6708%u5f97%u5be6%u8b49%u8cc7%u6599%u652f%u6301%u7684%u865b%u5047%u7dda%u6027%u8da8%u52e2%u3002%u9019%u500b%u554f%u984c%u5728%u65e2%u6709%u6587%u737b%u7684%u6a21%u578b%u898f%u683c%u4e2d%u76f8%u7576%u666e%u904d%u3002%u56e0%u6b64%uff0cMendelsohn %uff082016%uff09%u8207Tol %uff082021%uff09%u4e3b%u5f35%uff0c%u7814%u7a76%u8005%u61c9%u5c07%u8207%u5176%u9577%u671f%u5e73%u5747%u503c%u7684%u504f%u96e2%u4f5c%u70ba%u95dc%u6ce8%u7126%u9ede%uff0c%u85c9%u6b64%u5728%u8ffd%u8e64%u8cc7%u6599%u7684%u7814%u7a76%u4e2d%u7372%u5f97%u4e0d%u504f%u4f30%u8a08%u3002%u9019%u6a23%u7684%u8f49%u63db%u540c%u6642%u4e5f%u96b1%u542b%u4e86%u4e00%u7a2e%u300c%u9069%u61c9%u300d%uff08adaptation%uff09%u7684%u6a21%u578b%u5316%u65b9%u5f0f%u3002%u7b2c%u4e09%uff0c%u8ffd%u8e64%u8cc7%u6599%u7814%u7a76%u4e2d%u5e38%u7528%u7684%u56fa%u5b9a%u6548%u679c%uff08fixed effects, FE%uff09%u4f30%u8a08%u5f0f%uff0c%u5f80%u5f80%u5047%u8a2d%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u6578%u662f%u56b4%u683c%u5916%u751f%u7684%u3002%u7136%u800c%uff0c%u5728Nordhaus %uff081992%uff09%u7684%u52d5%u614b%u6574%u5408%u6c23%u5019%u7d93%u6fdf%u6a21%u578b%uff08the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, DICE model%uff09%u4e2d%uff0c%u6838%u5fc3%u601d%u60f3%u6b63%u662f%u5fc5%u9808%u8003%u616e%u7d93%u6fdf%u6210%u9577%u8207%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u4e4b%u9593%u7684%u96d9%u5411%u56de%u994b%u6548%u61c9%u3002DICE model%u6307%u51fa%uff0c%u66f4%u5feb%u901f%u7684%u7d93%u6fdf%u6d3b%u52d5%u6703%u589e%u52a0%u6eab%u5ba4%u6c23%u9ad4%uff08greenhouse gases, GHGs%uff09%u7684%u7d2f%u7a4d%u6392%u653e%uff0c%u9032%u800c%u63a8%u5347%u5e73%u5747%u6c23%u6eab%uff08%u53ef%u80fd%u4f34%u96a8%u9577%u671f%u6eef%u5f8c%uff09%uff1b%u540c%u6642%uff0c%u6c23%u6eab%u4e0a%u5347%u53c8%u6703%u6291%u5236%u7d93%u6fdf%u6d3b%u52d5%u3002%u56e0%u6b64%uff0c%u5728%u4f30%u8a08%u6c23%u6eab%u5c0d%u7d93%u6fdf%u6210%u9577%u7684%u5f71%u97ff%u6642%uff0c%u4e0d%u61c9%u88ab%u8996%u70ba%u56b4%u683c%u5916%u751f%uff0c%u800c%u66f4%u5408%u7406%u7684%u5047%u8a2d%u662f%u5176%u50c5%u70ba%u5f31%u5916%u751f%uff08weakly exogenous%uff09%u6216%u9810%u5b9a%u6c7a%u5b9a%uff08pre-determined%uff09%u65bc%u6240%u5f97%u6210%u9577%u2500%u63db%u8a00%u4e4b%uff0c%u904e%u53bb%u7684%u7d93%u6fdf%u6210%u9577%u53ef%u80fd%u5c0d%u672a%u4f86%u7684%u6c23%u6eab%u7522%u751f%u56de%u994b%u6548%u61c9%u3002%u6b64%u5916%uff0c%u56fa%u5b9a%u6548%u679c%u4f30%u8a08%u91cf%u5728%u52d5%u614b%u8ffd%u8e64%u8cc7%u6599%u4e2d%u5df2%u77e5%u5b58%u5728%u5c0f%u6a23%u672c%u6642%u9593%u7dad%u5ea6%u504f%u8aa4%uff08small-T bias%uff0c%u898bNickell, 1981%uff09%uff0c%u7279%u5225%u662f%u5728%u6a6b%u65b7%u9762%u6a23%u672c%u6578N%u5927%u65bc%u6642%u9593%u5e8f%u5217%u9577%u5ea6T%u7684%u60c5%u6cc1%u4e0b%u3002Chudik et al. %uff082018%uff09%u9032%u4e00%u6b65%u6307%u51fa%uff0c%u53ea%u8981%u6a21%u578b%u4e2d%u7684%u4e00%u500b%u6216%u591a%u500b%u89e3%u91cb%u8b8a%u6578%u4e0d%u662f%u56b4%u683c%u5916%u751f%uff0c%u4e0d%u8ad6%u662f%u5426%u7d0d%u5165%u88ab%u89e3%u91cb%u8b8a%u6578%u7684%u843d%u5f8c%u9805%uff0c%u504f%u8aa4%u90fd%u6703%u767c%u751f%u3002%u5728%u9019%u7a2e%u60c5%u6cc1%u4e0b%uff0c%u82e5%u4f9d%u8cf4%u50b3%u7d71%u7684FE%u4f30%u8a08%u5f0f%uff0c%u7d71%u8a08%u63a8%u8ad6%u5c07%u5931%u53bb%u6548%u529b%uff0c%u4e26%u53ef%u80fd%u9020%u6210%u56b4%u91cd%u7684%u6aa2%u5b9a%u626d%u66f2%uff0c%u9664%u975e%u5728%u7684%u6975%u9650%u4e0b%u540c%u6642%u6eff%u8db3%u3002%u4e8c%u3001 Kahn et al. %uff082021, Energy Economics%uff09%u7684%u8ca2%u737b%u6211%u5011%u7684%u7814%u7a76%u5305%u62ec%u6211%u8207Matthew E. Kahn%u3001Kamiar Mohaddes%u3001Ryan N. C. Ng%u3001M. Hashem Pesaran%u3001%u4ee5%u53caMehdi Raissi%u65bc2021%u5e74%u767c%u8868%u5728Energy Economics%u7684%u7814%u7a76%uff08Kahn et al., 2021%uff09%uff0c%u4ee5%u53ca%u5176%u4ed6%u5f8c%u7e8c%u7684%u7814%u7a76%uff0c%u5617%u8a66%u56de%u61c9%u9019%u4e9b%u554f%u984c%u3002%u5728Kahn et al. %uff082021%uff09%u9019%u7bc7%u6587%u7ae0%u4e2d%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u7814%u7a76%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u6240%u5f15%u8d77%u7684%u5929%u6c23%u578b%u614b%u8b8a%u5316%uff0c%u5c0d1960%u81f32014%u5e74%u9593174%u500b%u570b%u5bb6%u7684%u9577%u671f%u7e3d%u9ad4%u7d93%u6fdf%u5f71%u97ff%u3002%u5929%u6c23%u53ef%u80fd%u6703%u5f71%u97ff%u5404%u5730%u7684%u7522%u51fa%u6c34%u6e96%uff0c%u4f8b%u5982%u900f%u904e%u6539%u8b8a%u8fb2%u696d%u7522%u91cf%uff1b%u800c%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u5247%u900f%u904e%u6539%u8b8a%u5929%u6c23%u7684%u9577%u671f%u5e73%u5747%u503c%u8207%u6ce2%u52d5%u6027%uff0c%u53ef%u80fd%u9032%u4e00%u6b65%u524a%u5f31%u7d93%u6fdf%u7684%u9577%u671f%u6210%u9577%u80fd%u529b%uff0c%u4f8b%u5982%u964d%u4f4e%u6295%u8cc7%u548c%u52de%u52d5%u751f%u7522%u529b%u30021%u6211%u50111%u5929%u6c23%u662f%u6307%u77ed%u671f%u5167%u7684%u5927%u6c23%u72c0%u6cc1%uff0c%u4f8b%u5982%u6c23%u6eab%u548c%u964d%u6c34%u91cf%u3002%u6c23%u5019%u5247%u63cf%u8ff0%u5929%u6c23%u7684%u9577%u671f%u5e73%u5747%u6c34%u5e73%u53ca%u5176%u8b8a%u7570%u6027%u3002%u6c23%u5019%u8b8a%u9077%u5247%u6307%u300c%u6c23%u5019%u72c0%u614b%u767c%u751f%u6539%u8b8a%uff0c%u9019%u7a2e%u6539%u8b8a%u53ef%u4ee5%u900f%u904e%u5e73%u5747%u503c%u6216%u5176%u4ed6%u6c23%u5019%u7279%u5fb5%u7684%u8b8a%u7570%u6027%u9032%u884c%u7d71%u8a08%u6aa2%u6e2c%u8b58%u5225%uff0c%u4e14%u901a%u5e38%u6703%u6301%u7e8c%u8f03%u9577%u6642%u9593%uff0c%u901a%u5e38%u70ba%u6578%u5341%u5e74%u751a%u81f3%u66f4%u4e45%u300d%u3002%uff08IPCC, 2014%uff09