Page 12 - Demo

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portfolio%uff0c%u9084%u662f%u9996%u5148%u8981%u901a%u904e%u5347%u7b49%u7684%u8003%u9a57%u3002%u7b2c%u56db%u500b%u9762%u5411%u662f%u5982%u4f55%u8655%u7406%u7de8%u8f2f%u548c%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u7684%u610f%u898b%u3002%u4e00%u822c%u7de8%u8f2f%u5373%u4f7f%u662f%u7d66%u4e88%u4fee%u6539%u6a5f%u6703%uff0c%u53e3%u543b%u7d93%u5e38%u8b93%u4eba%u89ba%u5f97%u6700%u7d42%u88ab%u63a5%u53d7%u7684%u6a5f%u6703%u4e0d%u5927%u3002%u5982%u679c%u610f%u898b%u5408%u7406%uff0c%u80fd%u8b93%u8ad6%u6587%u66f4%u597d%uff0c%u96d6%u7136%u6709%u96e3%u5ea6%uff0c%u6211%u5efa%u8b70%u61c9%u8a72%u76e1%u529b%u4e14%u76e1%u5feb%u4fee%u6539%u3002%u62d6%u5ef6%u7684%u7d50%u679c%u5e38%u6703%u9020%u6210%u81ea%u5df1%u5c0d%u8a72%u8ad6%u6587%u5931%u53bb%u71b1%u60c5%u6216%u5c0d%u5167%u5bb9%u611f%u5230%u964c%u751f%u3002%u5982%u679c%u7121%u6cd5%u6eff%u8db3%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u7684%u8981%u6c42%uff0c%u4e5f%u7121%u9808%u9a5a%u614c%u3002%u53ef%u4ee5%u89e3%u91cb%u505a%u4e0d%u5230%u7684%u539f%u56e0%uff0c%u6216%u4ee5%u6b21%u4f73%u7684%u65b9%u5f0f%u8655%u7406%u3002%u4f8b%u5982%uff0c%u5728%u6211%u4fee%u6539%u4e00%u7bc7%u7528 DSGE %u6a21%u578b%u63a2%u8a0e%u4f4e%u6536%u5165%u570b%u5bb6%u7684%u8ca1%u653f%u6548%u679c%u7684%u8ad6%u6587%uff08Shen et al., 2018%uff09%u6642%uff0c%u6709%u4e00%u4f4d%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u8981%u6c42%u53c3%u6578%u9808%u4ee5%u8c9d%u6c0f%u4f30%u8a08%u7372%u5f97%u3002%u7136%u800c%u4f4e%u6536%u5165%u570b%u5bb6%u53ef%u9760%u4e14%u6a23%u672c%u671f%u9593%u9577%u5ea6%u8db3%u5920%u7684%u8cc7%u6599%u7f3a%u4e4f%uff0c%u56e0%u6b64%u6211%u5011%u6c7a%u5b9a%u7528 prior predictive analysis%uff0c%u89e3%u6c7a%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u6240%u64d4%u5fc3%u53c3%u6578%u4e0d%u78ba%u5b9a%u6027%u7684%u554f%u984c%u3002%u6e96%u5099%u4fee%u6b63%u5831%u544a%u6642%uff0c%u8a9e%u6c23%u8981%u8b19%u548c%u3001%u9010%u4e00%u56de%u61c9%u6bcf%u500b%u610f%u898b%uff0c%u4f46%u6bcb%u9808%u904e%u65bc%u5351%u8eac%u5c48%u819d%u548c%u7e41%u7463%u3002%u6211%u5e38%u770b%u5230%u4fee%u6b63%u5831%u544a%u5c0d%u6bcf%u500b%u610f%u898b%u56de%u8986%u7684%u958b%u982d%uff0c%u90fd%u5148%u611f%u8b1d%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%uff0c%u4e26%u4e14%u56de%u8986%u5197%u9577%u3002%u4fee%u6539%u5831%u544a%u7121%u9808%u5927%u7bc7%u5e45%u8907%u88fd%u4fee%u6539%u5f8c%u4e4b%u6b63%u6587%uff0c%u53ea%u9808%u9ede%u51fa%u6587%u4e2d%u4fee%u6539%u7684%u6bb5%u843d%u3002%u76f8%u5c0d%u65bc%u904e%u65bc%u8b19%u5351%u7684%u6975%u7aef%uff0c%u662f%u4ee5%u4e0d%u53cb%u5584%u7684%u53e3%u543b%u5c0d%u5be9%u67e5%u610f%u898b%u63d0%u51fa%u8cea%u7591%u3002%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u82e5%u6709%u8aa4%u6703%u4e4b%u8655%uff0c%u50c5%u9700%u59d4%u5a49%u6307%u51fa%u3001%u5ba2%u89c0%u89e3%u91cb%u3002%u5982%u679c%u89ba%u5f97%u671f%u520a%u5be9%u67e5%u54c1%u8cea%u4e0d%u4f73%uff0c%u63db%u671f%u520a%u6295%u7a3f%u5373%u53ef%uff0c%u7121%u9808%u5f97%u7f6a%u7de8%u8f2f%u6216%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u3002%u8ad6%u6587%u5be9%u67e5%u7684%u5708%u5b50%uff0c%u53ef%u80fd%u6bd4%u4f60%u60f3%u50cf%u4f86%u5f97%u5c0f%uff0c%u6211%u66fe%u6709%u5e7e%u6b21%u9047%u5230%u4e0d%u540c%u671f%u520a%u8981%u6c42%u6211%u5be9%u540c%u4e00%u7bc7%u8ad6%u6587%u3002%u8ad6%u6587%u7684%u4fee%u6539%uff0c%u5207%u5fcc%u81ea%u5df1%u4e3b%u52d5%u958b%u95e2%u65b0%u6230%u5834%uff0c%u7121%u7aef%u5c0d%u7b2c%u4e8c%u6b21%u5be9%u67e5%u9020%u6210%u56f0%u64fe%u3002%u4fee%u6539%u65b9%u5411%u539f%u5247%u4e0a%u61c9%u8a72%u76e1%u91cf%u8cbc%u8fd1%u7de8%u8f2f%u548c%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u7684%u8981%u6c42%u3002%u6295%u7a3f%u4e2d%u96e3%u514d%u9047%u5230%u96e2%u984c%u7684%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%uff0c%u6240%u63d0%u51fa%u7684%u554f%u984c%u4e26%u975e%u95dc%u9375%uff0c%u537b%u8981%u505a%u8a31%u591a%u65b0%u5de5%u4f5c%u3002%u5982%u679c%u7de8%u8f2f%u4e26%u672a%u5f37%u8abf%u8a72%u610f%u898b%u70ba%u5fc5%u9808%u4fee%u6539%u4e4b%u8655%uff0c%u672a%u5fc5%u9808%u8981%u5b8c%u5168%u57f7%u884c%u3002%u4f8b%u5982%uff0c%u524d%u8ff0%u6709%u95dc%u80a1%u7968%u56de%u8cfc%u7684%u8ad6%u6587%uff0c%u6709%u4e00%u4f4d%u5be9%u67e5%u4eba%u53ef%u80fd%u662f%u8ca1%u7ba1%u80cc%u666f%uff0c%u5c0d%u6211%u5011%u672a%u8003%u616e%u73fe%u5be6%u4e2d%u80a1%u7968%u56de%u8cfc%u7684%u52d5%u6a5f%u6709%u6240%u7591%u616e%u3002%u5728%u4fee%u6539%u7684%u7248%u672c%u4e2d%uff0c%u6211%u5011%u4e26%u672a%u4fee%u6539%u6a21%u578b%uff0c%u53ea%u662f%u6e05%u695a%u754c%u5b9a%u6587%u7ae0%u7684%u7bc4%u7587%uff0c%u8aaa%u660e%u5206%u6790%u7684%u4fb7%u9650%u3002%u7576%u4fee%u6539%u8ad6%u6587%u9047%u5230%u74f6%u9838%uff0c%u53ef%u4ee5%u5c0b%u6c42%u5354%u52a9%uff0c%u4f8b%u5982%u535a%u8ad6%u7684%u5c0e%u5e2b%u6216%u662f%u540c%u9818%u57df%u8cc7%u6df1%u7684%u5b78%u8005%u3002%u900f%u904e%u591a%u8207%u4eba%u8a0e%u8ad6%uff0c%u751a%u81f3%u53ef%u4ee5%u627e%u5230%u6f5b%u5728%u7684%u5408%u4f5c%u8005%u3002%u6700%u5f8c%uff0c%u6211%u60f3%u63d0%u7684%u662f%u5171%u540c%u7814%u7a76%u7684%u597d%u8655%u3002%u9664%u4e86%u53ef%u4ee5%u622a%u9577%u88dc%u77ed%uff0c%u4e5f%u53ef%u76f8%u4e92%u7763%u4fc3%uff0c%u63d0%u9ad8%u7814%u7a76%u52d5%u80fd%u3002%u7814%u7a76%u751f%u6daf%u8d77%u6b65%uff0c%u82e5%u80fd%u627e%u5230%u8f03%u6709%u7d93%u9a57%u7684%u5b78%u8005%u5408%u4f5c%uff0c%u53ef%u4ee5%u5b78%u7fd2%u8655%u7406%u7814%u7a76%u3001%u6295%u7a3f%u5728%u5404%u968e%u6bb5%u554f%u984c%u7684