Page 99 - Demo
P. 99
%u5f9e%u8de8%u9818%u57df%u65b9%u6cd5%u8207%u79d1%u5b78%u89e3%u91cb%u591a%u5143%u8ad6%u770b%u54f2%u5b78%u7684%u6311%u6230%u8207%u8f49%u6a5f97%u793e%u6703%u7b49%u7684%u7d71%u8a08%u5be6%u52d9%u9700%u6c42%uff0c%u539f%u6709%u7684%u56e0%u679c%u8a0e%u8ad6%u5df2%u7121%u6cd5%u6eff%u8db3%u6240%u9700%u3002%u52a0%u4e0aAI%u8207%u5927%u6578%u64da%u8208%u8d77%uff0c%u300c%u638c%u63e1%u8cc7%u6599%u5373%u80fd%u9810%u6e2c%u672a%u4f86%u300d%uff0c%u4ea6%u52a0%u6df1%u56e0%u679c%u7814%u7a76%u91cd%u8981%u6027%uff1a%u7562%u7adf%u9664%u4e86%u638c%u63e1%u300c%u76f8%u95dc%u6027%u300d%u66f4%u8981%u7406%u89e3%u56e0%u679c%uff0c%u65b9%u80fd%u77e5%u5176%u7136%u4e14%u77e5%u5176%u300c%u6240%u4ee5%u7136%u300d%u3002%u4e00%u65b9%u9762%uff0c%u5716%u9748%u734e%u5f97%u4e3bJudea Pearl%u5f9e%u96fb%u8166%u79d1%u5b78%u51fa%u767c%uff0c%u4ee5%u7d50%u69cb%u56e0%u679c%u6a21%u578bdo-calculus%u8207%u56e0%u679c%u5716%u7b49%u4f86%u5f97%u51fa%u53cd%u4e8b%u5be6%u8207%u5168%u9762%u56e0%u679c%u63a8%u8ad6%u3002%u5176%u512a%u9ede%u662f%u4ee5%u56e0%u679c%u5716%u7b49%u5efa%u7acb%u76f8%u5c0d%u900f%u660e%u4e14%u76f4%u89ba%u7684%u6a21%u578b%u3002%u53e6%u65b9%u9762%uff0c%u8afe%u8c9d%u723e%u734e%u5f97%u4e3bJoshua Angrist%u8207Guido Imbens%u5247%u4ee51974%u5e74%u7d71%u8a08%u5b78%u5bb6Donald Rubin%u7684%u6a21%u578b%u767c%u5c55%u51fa%u6f5b%u5728%u7d50%u679c%u67b6%u69cb%u3002%u4ee5%u5de5%u5177%u8b8a%u6578%u3001%u56de%u6b78%u4e0d%u9023%u7e8c%u8a2d%u8a08%u7b49%u5f37%u5316%u8b58%u5225%u8207%u4f30%u8a08%u7b56%u7565%u3002%u512a%u9ede%u5728%u65bc%u6578%u5b78%u57fa%u790e%u56b4%u8b39%u4e14%u61c9%u7528%u5ee3%u3002%u5169%u8005%u5404%u64c5%u52dd%u5834%u3002%u7136%u800c%u4e0d%u53ea%u7d71%u8a08%u6b78%u7d0d%u7684%u56e0%u679c%u7814%u7a76%uff0c%u908f%u8f2f%u6f14%u7e79%u4ea6%u662f%u50b3%u7d71%u60a0%u4e45%uff0c%u53ea%u662f%u5f7c%u6b64%u8f03%u5c11%u4ea4%u6d41%u3002%u6700%u8fd1%u52a0%u5dde%u6234%u7dad%u65af%u5927%u5b78%u9ad8%u7ff0%u8fea%u6559%u6388%u6307%u51faRubin causal model%u9810%u8a2d%u7684%u53cd%u4e8b%u5be6%u908f%u8f2f%u539f%u5247%uff08%u5373%u689d%u4ef6%u5f0f%u6392%u4e2d%u5f8b%uff1a%u82e5%u03c6%u6210%u7acb%u5247%u03c8%u6210%u7acb%uff1b%u6216%u8005%uff0c%u82e5%u03c6%u6210%u7acb%u5247%u975e%u03c8%u6210%u7acb%uff09%u53ef%u8ffd%u6eaf%u5230Stalnaker %uff081968%uff09%u8207Lewis %uff081973%uff09%u7684%u53cd%u4e8b%u5be6%u8a9e%u7fa9%u5b78%u722d%u8ad6%uff0c%u4e14%u6578%u5b78%u54f2%u5b78%u4e2dQuine%u2013Putnam indispensability argument%u4e5f%u53ef%u8b49%u6210%u8afe%u8c9d%u723e%u7d93%u6fdf%u5b78%u5bb6%u7684%u6a21%u578b%u3002%u63db%u8a00%u4e4b%uff0c%u6f14%u7e79%u8207%u6b78%u7d0d%u50b3%u7d71%u4e0b%u7684%u56e0%u679c%u63a8%u8ad6%u662f%u53ef%u7dca%u5bc6%u9023%u7d50%u3002%u9019%u5c0d%u6253%u7834%u50b3%u7d71%u58c1%u58d8%uff0c%u767c%u5c55%u51fa%u8de8%u7d71%u8a08%u3001%u908f%u8f2f%u7684%u56e0%u679c%u6a21%u578b%u9081%u51fa%u4e00%u6b65%u3002%u4e0d%u904e%uff0c%u79d1%u5b78%u89e3%u91cb%u4e26%u975e%u53ea%u6709%u56e0%u679c%u89e3%u91cb%u3002%u79d1%u5b78%u54f2%u5b78%u5bb6Marc Langue%u7684Because Without Cause: Non-Causal Explanations in Science and Mathematics%uff08OUP%uff09%u6307%u51fa%uff0c%u6709%u4e9b%u975e%u56e0%u679c%u79d1%u5b78%u89e3%u91cb%u4e26%u975e%u8aaa%u660e%u4e16%u754c%u7db2%u8def%u4e2d%u7684%u56e0%u679c%u95dc%u4fc2%uff0c%u800c%u662f%u7d14%u6578%u5b78%u7684%u63cf%u8ff0%u3002%u4f8b%u5982%u56e0%u679c%u95dc%u4fc2%u9810%u8a2d%u6642%u9593%u4e0a%u7684%u300c%u524d%u300d%u56e0%u300c%u5f8c%u300d%u679c%uff0c%u4f46%u908f%u8f2f%u860a%u542b%u6216%u6578%u5b78%u50b3%u905e%u5f8b%u4e26%u4e0d%u5177%u6b64%u6642%u9593%u6027%u3002%u9019%u7a2e%u975e%u56e0%u679c%u89e3%u91cb%u96d6%u89e3%u91cb%u529b%u66f4%u5f37%uff0c%u6848%u4f8b%u537b%u4e0d%u5982%u56e0%u679c%u89e3%u91cb%u591a%u3002%u4f46%u4f5c%u70ba%u4e00%u4f4d%u89e3%u91cb%u591a%u5143%u4e3b%u7fa9%u8005%uff0cLangue%u8a8d%u70ba%u6c92%u6709%u4e00%u7a2e%u7406%u8ad6%u80fd%u5920%u6db5%u84cb%u6240%u6709%u7684%u89e3%u91cb%u985e%u578b%u3002%u6545%u79d1%u5b78%u9700%u4e0d%u540c%u89e3%u91cb%u7406%u8ad6%u624d%u80fd%u5145%u5206%u638c%u63e1%u6240%u6709%u56e0%u679c%u548c%u975e%u56e0%u679c%u89e3%u91cb%u3002%u9664%u6b64%u4e4b%u5916%uff0c%u81ea%u7136%u73fe%u8c61%u4e2d%u7684%u5de7%u5408%uff08coincidence%uff09%u4e5f%u5e38%u7121%u6cd5%u5316%u7d04%u5230%u56e0%u679c%u89e3%u91cb%u3002%u800c%u82e5%u7121%u6cd5%u5316%u7d04%u5230%u5176%u4ed6%u89e3%u91cb%uff0c%u662f%u5426%u5de7%u5408%u672c%u8eab%u4e5f%u53ef%u662f%u4e00%u7a2e%u89e3%u91cb%uff08%u4e0a%u5e1d%u662f%u5426%u64f2%u9ab0%u5b50%uff09%uff1f%u9019%u4e9b%u554f%u984c%u672a%u6709%u5b9a%u8ad6%uff0c%u5e38%u9a45%u52d5%u4eba%u985e%u597d%u5947%u5fc3%u63a2%u7d22%u66f4%u6df1%u5c64%u7684%u539f%u56e0%u3002%u56db%u3001%u610f%u7fa9%u79d1%u5b78%u8207%u4eba%u6587%u7684%u672a%u4f86%u6709%u8da3%u7684%u662f%uff0c%u96d6%u7136%u79d1%u5b78%u8207%u54f2%u5b78%u5728%u63a2%u7d22%u771f%u7406%uff0c%u4f46%u4eba%u985e%u5927%u8166%u7684%u6f14%u5316%u4e26%u975e%u70ba%u4e86%u8ffd%u6c42%u771f%u7406%uff0c%u800c%u662f%u5728%u5404%u7a2e%u74b0%u5883%u6311%u6230%u4e2d%u751f%u5b58%u3002%u56e0%u6b64%uff0c%u67d0%u5916%u5728%u4e8b%u4ef6%u5c0d%u4eba%u985e%u5b58%u5728%u662f%u597d%u6216%u58de%uff08%u610f%u7fa9%u8a6e%u91cb%uff09%u3001%u6703%u5c0e%u81f4%u6709%u5229%u6216%u5371%u96aa%u7d50%u679c%uff08%u56e0%u679c%u63a8%u8ad6%uff09%u4fbf%u5341%u5206%u91cd%u8981%u3002%u800c%u54f2%u5b78%u7684%u4eba%u6587%u9762%u5411%uff0c%u6b63%u662f%u8ffd%u5c0b%u5404%u7a2e%u610f%u7fa9%u8207%u50f9%u503c%u3002%u5f9e%u67cf%u62c9%u5716%u53cd%u7701%u57ce%u90a6%u6c11%u4e3b%u3001%u5eb7%u5fb7%u8ad6%u8b49%u4eba%u6027%u5c0a%u56b4%u3001Iris Young%u6279%u5224%u7f85%u723e%u65af%u6b63%u7fa9%u8ad6%uff0c%u5230%u81fa%u7063%u6b96%u6c11%u6642%u671f%u54f2%u5b78%u5bb6%u6d2a%u8000%u52f3%u5c0d%u7f8e%u5b78%u8207%u6587%u5316%u7684%u8faf